🏡Ottawa Market Update — October 2025

📊Market Snapshot — September 2025

Ottawa’s fall market continues to showsteady movement and balanced conditions, with sales and prices holding close to 2024 levels despite ongoing affordability pressures.

According to the latest Ottawa Real Estate Board data:

• Total Homes Sold:804 (-2.1% vs. Sept 2024)

  • Freeholds:565 (-1.9%)

  • Condos:239 (-2.4%)

• Average Price (All Residential):$675,195(-0.6% y/y)

• Average Freehold Price:$780,187(-0.6% y/y)

• Average Condo Price:$426,990(-1.0% y/y)

• Days on Market:

  • Freehold: 29 days (unchanged)

  • Condo: 44 days (vs. 40 last year)

• Active Listings:2,848

• Months of Inventory:3.5 months (14 weeks)→Slight Seller’s Market

In other words, while prices have dipped slightly year-over-year, Ottawa remains one of the most stable and liquid markets in the country — homes are still moving, and supply levels remain relatively lean.

💡What’s Driving the Market

Ottawa’s September data confirms what we’ve seen since midsummer: a-pause in upward momentum, but no sign of distress.
Here’s what’s shaping that balance:

1. Affordability Fatigue:
   After several years of rate volatility, buyers are cautious. The recent 0.6–1% year-over-year dip is less about demand loss and more about tighter budgets.
   The “right” homes — those priced accurately and move-in ready — are still commanding attention and selling quickly.

2. Rates Stabilizing:
   The Bank of Canada has paused further hikes as inflation continues easing. While the overnight rate remains elevated, yields have softened — suggesting we could see mortgage rates trend lower in early 2026.

3. Renewal Wave Pressure:
   Roughly 60% of Canadian mortgages renew in 2025–26, which is reshaping consumer behaviour. Many owners are staying put longer, reducing move-up supply — but also tightening listings in key price brackets.

4. Economic Cooling Nationally:
   RBC Economics reports that Canada's trade deficit widened sharply in August, the second-largest on record, as new tariffs took effect. Slower trade and GDP growth could accelerate the case for rate cuts in 2026 — potentially improving affordability mid-year.

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Ottawa in the National Context

• The Tera net–National Bank House Price Index showed Canada’s first monthly price uptick in eight months in August, though values remain down2.5% year-over-year nationally.

• Ottawa-Gatineau, however, continues to outperform — recording a-small monthly gain and flat year-over-year trend.

• According to WOWA, Ottawa’s benchmark price remains near$633,000(+1.5% y/y), with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 58%, confirming a balanced-to-slight-seller market.

Bottom line: Ottawa remains a model of consistency— no bubble, no crash — just stable, fundamentals-driven housing activity.

Segment Deep Dive

Freeholds

Freehold homes continue to anchor Ottawa’s market.
Average prices at $780K reflect steady mid-tier activity, particularly in Barrhaven, Findlay Creek, Riverside South, and Stittsville, where family-oriented buyers remain active.
Homes are taking 29 days on average to sell, which indicates motivated but selective buyers — not urgency, but readiness when the fit is right.

Condos

The condo market saw a mild 1% year-over-year decline, with average prices at $426,990.
Days on market extended to 44 days, suggesting buyers are taking more time and comparing options carefully.
This segment offersthe most negotiation potential right now — ideal for first-time buyers or investors seeking value.

Affordability & Mortgage Insights

Even with slight price softening, affordability challenges persist.
According to RBC’s Housing Affordability Index, ownership costs still consume a near-record share of household income, though relief is expected gradually through 2026.

A recent Canadian Mortgage Trends analysis highlighted a crucial point:

Many in-branch “advisers” are generalists — not true mortgage specialists.
Using an independent mortgage broker can open access to niche products, rate blends, and creative structuring — which will be increasingly valuable as renewals roll in.

For buyers, that means casting a wider net for financing options.
For current homeowners, it’s time to proactively review renewal strategies— don’t wait until your bank contacts you.

Macro Outlook

While September’s stats show a minor year-over-year dip, the broader picture remains encouraging:

• Sales volumes are stable

• Prices are holding within a 1% range

• Supply is still under 4 months, supporting balance

• Rate cuts could add momentum in early 2026

If national conditions continue to cool — and borrowing costs ease — we could see renewed demand emerge next spring, especially among sidelined first-time and move-up buyers.

What This Means for You

For Buyers

• Take advantage of seasonal balance— sellers are motivated before winter.

• Focus on turnkey homes or condospriced right within today’s comps.

• Don’t stretch for rate expectations — buy based on your current budget, not speculation.

• Lock a shorter-term fixed or variable to stay flexible for future rate drops.

For Sellers

• We’re in a-price-sensitive market— overpricing will hurt exposure fast.

• Homes that photograph well and show beautifully still sell within a month.

• Highlight efficiency, maintenance, and upgrades; these resonate most right now.

• Expect 3–4 weeks on market for properly positioned listings.

For Investors

• Cash flow remains tight, but equity stability in Ottawa is strong.

• Condos may present value plays as prices level off.

• Watch for opportunities in well-located resale townhomes— still in high rental demand.

Looking Ahead

Heading into Q4, Ottawa’s market remains one of the most balanced and predictable in the country.
We’re seeing realistic pricing, qualified buyers, and motivated (but not desperate) sellers — all signs of a healthy real estate ecosystem.

Expect:

• Modest, steady prices through winter

• Stable demand for freeholds

• Continued negotiation room on condos

• Gradual affordability improvement if rates ease in 2026

Final Word

The market isn’t swinging wildly anymore — and that’s a good thing.
Ottawa has returned to fundamentals:pricing, preparation, and patience.
Whether you’re buying, selling, or refinancing, this environment rewards those who act strategically.

Let’s connect if you’d like a personalized look at where your home or buying opportunity fits into today’s numbers.

Mortgage Rates - Chris Allard Team

Fixed

3-Year Fixed: 3.89% (less than 20% down payment)

4-Year Fixed: 4.19% (less than 20% down payment)

5-Year Fixed: 3.99% (less than 20% down payment)

5-Year Fixed: 4.14% (20% down payment or more)

5-Year Fixed: 4.04% (35% down payment or more)

Variable

5-Year Variable: 3.85% (less than 20% down payment)

5-Year Variable: 4.10% (20% down payment or more)

5-Year Variable: 4.05% (35% down payment or more)

 Thinking about buying or selling in Ottawa this fall? Let’s talk strategy. Reply to this email or call me today to get started with a tailored plan for your goals.

Ron Gusinjac
Realtor®,
Royal LePage Performance Realty

613-890-0444  |  [email protected]

201-1500 Bank St, Ottawa, ON, K1H 7Z2