Ottawa Market Report - Dec 2025
Ottawa Market Update — Jan 2026
Market Snapshot – Jan 2026
December 2025 closed quietly according to the latest statistics released by the Ottawa Real Estate Board. Home resales were down 6% compared to last December, while inventory climbed to over four months of supply—its highest level in many years. Median days on market rose to 38 days, the longest we’ve seen in nearly a decade.
With this slowdown and the continued buildup of inventory, average sale prices declined by 3.6% month-over-month and 0.2% year-over-year, bringing Ottawa’s average sale price to $658,943 at year-end.
Whether this reflects a typical seasonal winter slowdown or the early stages of a shift toward a buyer-friendly market will become clearer as we head into the spring. That said, early signs suggest 2026 is shaping up to be a compelling time for buyers who are prepared and well-advised.
If you’d like to discuss how these market conditions could create opportunities for you and your family, I’d be happy to connect.
RBC Economics’ latest Forward Guidance points to an economy that is slowing but not breaking. Inflation has moderated from its peak yet remains marginally above the Bank of Canada’s target, particularly when core measures are considered. Business sentiment reflects this environment, with firms reporting softer demand and restrained hiring and pricing intentions. Against this backdrop, RBC expects monetary policy to remain restrictive but stable, with the Bank of Canada likely to hold interest rates steady through most of 2026 and any subsequent adjustment skewed toward tightening rather than easing. For Ottawa’s real estate market, this reinforces a landscape defined by disciplined buyers, steady financing conditions, and price movement driven more by fundamentals and local supply than by speculative momentum.
If you’re buying, this is a market that rewards patience and selectivity. There are still opportunities to secure value on listings that have lingered, particularly toward the end and beginning of the year when activity softens. Builder inventory remains relatively stable, and in some cases flexibility has increased recently we were able to negotiate many discounts with quite a few developers sitting on inventory.
If you’re selling, buyers clearly have options. Across most segments from suburban townhomes to higher-end detached homes supply is ample, with the exception of a few consistently strong pockets such as the Glebe, Hintonburg, and Westboro. Preparation matters more than timing alone. A meaningful amount of inventory appears poised to come to market in the spring, and sellers who are proactive now completing updates, securing photography, and tightening their presentation will be best positioned once activity accelerates.
For investors, Ottawa continues to stand out as one of the country’s most stable long-term markets. Over the past century, price corrections have been infrequent and generally shallow, with only one significant double-digit decline. Well-underwritten opportunities still move quickly, though they are scarce. Lately, value has been most evident in select multi-unit properties with future equity upside and a small number of attractively priced pre-construction offerings.
Looking ahead, prices appear positioned to remain steady, with transaction volume moderate and consistent. We've been seeing a strong trend the past few years where spring markets are quite elevated in activity and very promising and a cooling going into fall / winter. Where as in the past fall presented a secondary opportunity for sellers to maximize sale price it seems early spring - early summer is the ideal window.
Overall, this is a balanced and fundamentally sound market. Success is less about timing dramatic swings and more about moving with discipline, preparation, and realistic expectations. Buyers, sellers, and investors who approach the market strategically continue to be rewarded.
It doesn’t always make sense to buy or sell. I encourage you to think beyond the next year and focus instead on your five-year horizon.
That longer view brings clarity to the decision you’re making today and how it will shape your future. Short term considerations can sometimes carry more weight than they should and end up working against long-term goals.
Macro Check: Why Rate Cuts May Be on Pause
One thing worth paying attention to right now is how the broader economy is actually performing versus what everyone expected earlier this year.
Recent data shows real GDP is tracking much closer to the Bank of Canada’s more optimistic April outlook than to the weaker scenarios that were being discussed through the summer. Growth dipped briefly mid year, but it stabilized faster than expected and is now trending gradually higher into 2026.
That matters because it helps explain the shift in tone from the Bank of Canada. Inflation is hovering around the 2 percent range, but the economy hasn’t weakened enough to force further rate cuts. In other words, the conditions for aggressive easing just aren’t there right now.
This doesn’t mean we’re heading into a boom, and it doesn’t mean rates are going up again. It means the economy is holding together better than feared, which supports the idea that borrowing costs stay relatively stable rather than falling quickly.
From a housing perspective, this lines up closely with what I’m seeing on the ground in Ottawa. Buyers are cautious but active, price sensitive but still willing to move on well positioned homes. There’s no panic, but there’s also no urgency being driven by expectations of cheaper money around the corner.
The takeaway is pretty simple. This is a fundamentals driven environment. Decisions are being made based on value, affordability, and long term planning, not on headlines or short term rate speculation. And that’s usually where the healthiest markets live.
Mortgage Rates - Chris Allard Team
Some of the top rates that we are seeing today are:
Fixed
3-Year Fixed: 3.79% (less than 20% down payment)
4-Year Fixed: 3.94% (less than 20% down payment)
5-Year Fixed: 3.89% (less than 20% down payment)
5-Year Fixed: 4.09% (20% down payment or more)
5-Year Fixed: 3.89% (35% down payment or more)
Variable
5-Year Variable: 3.55% (less than 20% down payment)
5-Year Variable: 3.80% (20% down payment or more)
5-Year Variable: 3.70% (35% down payment or more)
Thinking about buying or selling in Ottawa this fall? Let’s talk strategy. Reply to this email or call me today to get started with a tailored plan for your goals.
Ron Gusinjac
Realtor®,
Engel & Völkers Ottawa Central
