Ottawa Market Report - Feb 2025
National Bank Calls for Emergency Rate Cut Amid U.S. Tariffs
National Bank of Canada economists are calling for an emergency rate cut from the Bank of Canada to help absorb the economic shock of new U.S. tariffs imposed by President Trump. The White House announced on Saturday that tariffs on Canadian imports will take effect on February 4—25% on most goods, with energy products facing a 10% tariff. In response, Canada has retaliated with 25% tariffs on $155 billion worth of U.S. goods.
Chief economist Stéfane Marion and his team argue that an emergency 50-basis-point cut is needed immediately, with additional 25-basis-point cuts in March and April to bring the policy rate down to 2% by spring. The bank has downgraded Canada’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.4% (from 1.4%) and predicts the unemployment rate will rise to 7.4% this year. Inflation is expected to climb to 2.3%, slightly above previous estimates.
Marion sees the tariffs as part of a broader strategy to pressure Canada on border security, suggesting they may eventually settle at 10% long term. While Canada is especially vulnerable to a trade war, its role in the U.S. economy remains significant, which could limit the severity of future measures.
Now that any potential benefit from economic diversification has been kneecapped by tariffs, it’s likely that Canadian policymakers will double down on the housing market. That means aggressive rate cuts, increased infrastructure spending, and a construction boom in an attempt to keep the economy afloat. However, even these measures may not be enough to offset the damage, as the broader economic impact of protectionist policies sets in.
What to Expect in 2025?
If interest rates fall, demand will likely rise, putting further pressure on inventory and prices.
If economic conditions weaken, some buyers may delay purchasing, leading to a slower market in the first half of the year.
Investors and first-time buyers could become more active if borrowing costs ease.
For Sellers:
Low inventory means less competition, making this a great time to sell before the spring rush.
Proper pricing is key—buyers are still cautious, so overpriced homes may sit longer on the market.
For Buyers:
Rates may drop, but waiting could mean facing more competition in the spring.
If you’re looking for a deal, act early before more buyers re-enter the market.
Ottawa Real Estate Market Update – January 1, 2025
The Ottawa housing market continues to show resilience as we enter the new year, with modest price growth and steady sales activity. Here’s a breakdown of the latest market trends:
Home Prices
Overall Average Price: $639,461 (+1.2% from December 2023)
Freehold Homes: $747,652 (+3.5%) – Includes detached, townhouses, and semi-detached homes.
Condos: $427,784 (-0.6%) – Includes apartments, row units, and stacked condos.
Sales Activity
A total of 476 homes sold in December 2024, marking a 5.3% increasecompared to last year.
Freehold Sales: 315 transactions (+1.0%)
Condo Sales: 161 transactions (+15.0%)
Time on Market
Freehold Homes: Sold in 44 days on average (compared to 43 days last year).
Condos: Sold in 41 days on average (compared to 38 days last year).
Inventory & Market Conditions
Total Listings: 1,246 active residential properties.
Market Supply: 2.6 months (10.5 weeks) of inventory.
Last Year showed a total of 4.4% price growth, with the expected rate cuts, buyer incentives currently available, and strong amount of renewals ( 2020 purchasers) I believe this will overall be a strong year in the real estate market as many of those buyers have built up equity which they may look to pull out and deploy into investments similar to 2020-2022.
Mortgage talk
Some of the top rates that we are seeing today are:
Fixed
3-Year Fixed: 4.14% (less than 20% down payment)
4-Year Fixed: 4.49% (less than 20% down payment)
5-Year Fixed: 4.19% (less than 20% down payment)
5-Year Fixed: 4.39% (20% down payment or more)
5-Year Fixed: 4.24% (35% down payment or more)
Variable
5-Year Variable: 4.35% (less than 20% down payment)
5-Year Variable: 4.40% (20% down payment or more)
5-Year Variable: 4.40% (35% down payment or more)
With bonds Coming down, we'll likely see a decrease in these rates, which is good news for borrowers although I will say if you are on the fence. Get pre approved and get a rate lock just in case!
The Good News
The Bank of Canada decreased their key interest rate again this past Wednesday by another 0.25%. In turn, lenders decreased their prime rate by the same amount. Variable rate borrowers should see an approximate $15 decrease per $100,000 borrowed on their monthly payments.
The Bank of Canada decreased their key interest rate again this past Wednesday by another 0.25%. In turn, lenders decreased their prime rate by the same amount. Variable rate borrowers should see an approximate $15 decrease per $100,000 borrowed on their monthly payments.
Preferred Lenders:
Chris Allard
Allard Mortgage
[email protected]
Cell: (613) 324-2389
Ahmad Al-Shraify
AKAS Mortgages
[email protected]
Cell: 613-501-5973
Carlos Mora
TD BANK
Cell: 587-434-7696
Edward Dahan
Cell: 613-261-1847
Ron Gusinjac
Realtor®,
Royal LePage Performance Realty
613-890-0444 | [email protected]
201-1500 Bank St, Ottawa, ON, K1H 7Z2
