Ottawa Market Report - May 2025
Ottawa Real Estate – April 2025 Snapshot
Total Sales: 1,000 homes sold (↓15.1% YoY)
• 693 Freeholds (↓17.5%)
• 307 Condos (↓9.2%)Average Prices:
• Overall: $695,625 (↓1.9%)
• Freeholds: $805,934 (↓1.3%)
• Condos: $446,622 (↑1.1%)Days on Market:
• Freeholds: 23 days (vs. 21 last year)
• Condos: 33 days (vs. 31 last year)
The Market was a bit slower last month than expected. Due to the trade war + Elections many people decided to wait on the sideline, to get more clarity on the future of Canada. With that being said I've definitely noticed an uptick since the election of calls and conversations.
At an Open house I visited with a few of my clients, there were 6 other groups in the home with us. Additionally the host said she'd had over 20 groups. All that said I think May will be a bit of a turning point for transactions. As for prices, I believe we will remain relatively steady overall as inventory is keeping up and we're at an approximate 2-1 sale to list ratio.
New builds seem to be the hot market as of late, Accounting for a large portion of my business I've been noticing developments and availability selling out much quicker than last year. It seems the general public is really shifting towards a mentality of wanting low maintenance homes. < note to sellers.
I wanted to change the format of this newsletter where I write some of my thoughts in a very hyper local scheme and in the second portion go into broader picture.
NOTE: We are now officially at the largest drop from the peak of a real estate market in history. < I found this to be very interesting as I do genuinely believe prices have corrected to a much better place then before but dont think they'll be dropping any time soon in Ottawa. But reading that kind of confirms it.
Sellers:
Get your home on the market these next few weeks. This will likely be the best time to get the most amount of money for your home although there is also more competition, meaning you have to be on your game with pricing, marketing and presentation.
Buyers:
I said it a million times and I will say it again. Pre approve and be active. With more buyers starting to enter the market, there will be more competition in the month ahead. New builds right now seem to offer some compelling opportunities to those that have the time to wait.
If you want to understand what’s going on in our market and how it applies to you, I encourage you to read my past newsletters or reach out. I’m always happy to chat strategy.
Are We Trading a Housing Bubble for a Rental One?
As home sales slow and economic uncertainty lingers, Canada’s rental market is now under pressure—especially for tenants.
Rental Prices Continue to Climb
In March 2025, average apartment rents across Canada rose 1.5% to $2,119/month. Purpose-built rentals—once the more affordable option—have jumped 35.5% since 2020. The price gap between those units and condos has nearly disappeared, with just a $33 difference nationally.
Smaller Cities Catching Up
While cities like Toronto and Vancouver are seeing minor rent declines, markets in smaller cities—like Halifax—are heating up fast. The rent gap between major and mid-sized markets is shrinking, which could reshape affordability across the country.
Policy Push Backfires?
Government efforts to attract institutional investors into rental construction haven't improved affordability. In fact, many of these initiatives have primarily driven investor profits rather than tenant relief.
Ottawa Outlook
Locally, Ottawa renters are expected to feel the same pressure: rising rents, tight supply, and limited relief in sight. While this may strengthen the case for rental investment, it presents ongoing challenges for affordability and tenant retention.
Mortgage talk
Some of the top rates that we are seeing today are:
Mortgage talk
Some of the top rates that we are seeing today are:
Fixed
Some of the top rates that we are seeing today are:
Fixed
3-Year Fixed: 3.79% (less than 20% down payment)
4-Year Fixed: 4.34% (less than 20% down payment)
5-Year Fixed: 3.89% (less than 20% down payment)
5-Year Fixed: 4.09% (20% down payment or more)
5-Year Fixed: 3.94% (35% down payment or more)
Variable
5-Year Variable: 4.20% (less than 20% down payment)
5-Year Variable: 4.30% (20% down payment or more)
5-Year Variable: 4.20% (35% down payment or more)
Mortgage Market Update – May 2025
Short-term pressure, long-term decisions
“We’ve seen a steady worsening for a while now,” says Ron Butler of Butler Mortgage, as both fixed and variable rates continue creeping higher due to growing economic uncertainty.
Rate Trends
High-ratio 5-year fixed rates recently rose by 10–20 basis points, climbing from 3.64% earlier this month.
Variable rates are also edging higher—not because the Bank of Canada raised rates, but because lenders are shrinking their discounts off prime (currently 4.95%). CIBC and Scotiabank, for example, have pulled back 10–15 basis points.
Why? It’s not just about swap costs or hedging. Butler explains:
“There’s just enough uncertainty. The big banks want to cover their bets in case there’s a sudden rate move.”
Variable Still Has Long-Term Potential
Despite narrowing discounts, variable rates could still win out over time.
Expert Dave Larock notes that while fixed rates are cheaper today, variable may end up being more cost-effective—especially if the Bank of Canada cuts rates more aggressively later this year due to recession risks.
“If a fluctuating mortgage rate won’t put you under financial pressure… I think the variable rate will likely prove to be the cheapest option.”
Strategy for Borrowers
Lock in sub-4% fixed rates now, if you can. “That’s a great idea,” says Butler—especially if you plan to stay in the home for 3–5+ years.
Go variable if you expect to sell or refinance soon. Variable rates come with much lower penalties, making them ideal for short-term flexibility.
Read in more detail here : https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2025/05/fixed-rates-are-creeping-up-and-variable-rate-discounts-are-shrinking-too/
Ron Gusinjac
Realtor®,
Royal LePage Performance Realty
613-890-0444 | [email protected]
201-1500 Bank St, Ottawa, ON, K1H 7Z2
