Job vacancies increasing is the market slowing down?

Ottawa Market Report - November 2024

Market reports - 2024

November 09, 2024•4 min read

Are We in a Recession?

While not officially declared, the Canadian economy is showing signs consistent with a "per capita recession." Over the last five to six quarters, our GDP growth has been stagnant or negative, indicating a slowdown. However, the impact has been somewhat softened by a high influx of immigration, with over 1.5 million newcomers to Canada, which has boosted demand and activity across sectors despite economic pressures.

Bank of Canada Rate Policy

The Bank of Canada is expected to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, potentially decreasing rates by 0.5 basis points in the upcoming announcement. Canada typically aligns closely with U.S. monetary policy to maintain currency stability. Without rate alignment, the Canadian dollar could weaken further. Inflation, outside of mortgage interest costs, has largely cooled down, with underlying rates near 1.5% (below the 2% target), creating less pressure to maintain high rates. CIBC’s Benjamin Tal anticipates rates will stabilize between 2.25% and 2.5%, as reductions here are key for bringing down fixed mortgage rates, which will benefit buyers and stimulate the economy.

Canadian Real Estate: A Tale of Two Markets

Low-Rise and Freehold Properties:
With interest rates trending down, demand has surged, especially for detached homes and townhouses. This segment has seen a substantial increase in sales activity as buyers seek out more stable long-term investments.

Condo Market:
Conversely, the condo market faces unique challenges. Approximately 80% of condo investors across Canada are experiencing negative cash flow, and builders are hesitant to launch new projects due to high construction costs. While pre-sale activity remains sluggish, we’re beginning to see buyer interest return as resale prices have softened, opening opportunities for value-minded buyers. In fact, I'm planning to explore the condo market myself in the coming year.

Ottawa Market Update

Ottawa, driven largely by residential demand, is seeing a notable uptick in activity. October sales data reflects this momentum, with 925 residential properties sold in Ottawa in October 2024—a remarkable 48.2% increase from last year. Freehold sales soared 61.1% (667 sales), while condo sales saw a 22.9% increase (258 sales). As buyers increasingly recognize the value Ottawa offers, now may be an ideal time to act.

In the past month, our team has had over 50 conversations with buyers actively planning their next move within the next 3–6 months. I personally worked with four buyers recently, successfully negotiating attractive incentives and prices.

If you're considering entering the market or curious about current opportunities, reach out. I’m here to provide guidance and make sure you’re informed on the latest developments and best options available, I'm a strong believer in being proactive vs reactive in the market.

Buyers : Talk to your realtor, get a pre approval start searching in that order

Sellers: Talk to your realtor, get pictures done now while it's nice out and prep to sell. Key factors in this market are staging, availability and having a realtor that understands online marketing such as me.

Click here to send me an email.

Mortgage talk

Fixed rates may be on the rise.

Yes, you read the headline correctly. There has been some upwards pressure on fixed rates as Canada’s bond yields have risen over the past week. If you want to follow along with Canada’s bond yields, you can do so by clicking here.

With the potential for increases to fixed rates, it is EXTREMELY important that clients looking to purchase get a pre-approval.

We will keep you posted on what changes we see in the rate market over the. next several days.

Important note - Financial institutions are mostly closed on Monday in honour of Remembrance Day.

Some of the top rates that we are seeing today are:

Fixed

3-Year Fixed: 4.14% (less than 20% down payment)
4-Year Fixed: 4.44% (less than 20% down payment)
5-Year Fixed: 4.09% (less than 20% down payment)
5-Year Fixed: 4.19% (20% down payment or more)

5-Year Fixed: 4.19% (35% down payment or more)

Variable
5-Year Variable: 4.90% (less than 20% down payment)
5-Year Variable: 5.15% (20% down payment or more)
5-Year Variable: 4.90% (35% down payment or more)

Contact for a free pre approval.

Preferred Lenders:

Chris Allard

Allard Mortgage
[email protected]

Cell: (613) 324-2389

Carlos Mora

TD BANK

[email protected]

Cell: 587-434-7696

Edward Dahan

RBC [email protected]

Cell: 613-261-1847