Ottawa Market report - HST savings for all buyers?
This Week in the Market
What a week it’s been.
A lot of news coming out, but the one everyone’s focused on is the government announcing a potential HST rebate for new build buyers.
And yes, this would apply to ALL eligible buyers, not just first-time buyers. So whether you already own a home or this is an additional purchase, as long as it’s your primary residence, you could benefit.
If this passes as proposed, we’re looking at up to 13% in potential savings, which is significant.
Now keep in mind, this is still a proposal. It being included in the budget is a strong signal, but it’s not guaranteed and there will likely be some adjustments or fine print as things get finalized, especially since this needs to be aligned with the federal government.
As it stands right now, the rebate appears to follow a few key criteria.
It would apply to new agreements of purchase and sale within a specific window, between April 1st 2026 and march of 2027.
There are timelines tied to when construction begins and when the home is completed.
The property must be used as a primary residence to qualify.
There are price thresholds, with full relief up to around $1M and partial relief up to roughly $1.5M.
Also important to understand, most builders today already have a portion of the HST rebate, up to $24K, built into their pricing, so this isn’t entirely new savings, but it is still a meaningful increase from what currently exists.
For first-time buyers, there is also a separate rebate that is expected to remain in place and align with the federal program. Based on current information, that portion may still apply retroactively to purchases going back to around March 2025, which is an important distinction.
One more thing people aren’t talking about, this is being proposed as a temporary program, and once it ends, the current rebate structure may be phased out.
Overall, if this gets fully implemented, this is a major shift in the new build market. It will likely bring a lot of buyers off the sidelines and drive demand fairly quickly.
I’ve personally been in multiple sales centres across the city over the past week, and the shift is already happening. There was an uptick with the GST changes, and in just the past couple of days with this announcement, most reps are saying calls and traffic have increased noticeably.
From my perspective, this is shaping up to be a strong window of opportunity.
If you’re considering a new build, timing and strategy are going to matter a lot here.
Here’s the bigger picture.
Sellers
If you’re in an area with a lot of new construction nearby, your competition just got stronger. That said, it’s not one size fits all. Location, product, timeline, and condition still matter. In many cases, even if you don’t maximize on the sale side, the opportunity
on the buy side could more than make up for it.
Buyers
This is where things get interesting. New builds need to be part of the conversation now. First-time buyers were already heavily incentivized, and now this opens the door for a much broader group. If you’re thinking of upsizing, there could be a real opportunity depending on your current position.
On the resale side, we’re sitting at roughly a 2 to 1 listing to sale ratio, about 648 new listings and 300 firm sales over the past week. It’s been a bit slower, and honestly the weather has likely played a role as well. People just aren’t out shopping as aggressively in these conditions.
What is a good deal when selling?
Most people think it’s simply getting the highest price.
In reality, it’s much more layered than that.
A strong sale is about how well the property is positioned relative to the current market.
That includes pricing, but also how the home compares to active competition, how it shows, and how easily a buyer can justify the number you’re asking.
There’s also a timing element.
In some situations, creating urgency and competition is the right move. In others, especially when inventory is higher or buyers are more selective, it’s about being priced properly from day one and controlling the narrative.
Another layer is buyer quality.
Not all offers are equal. A slightly lower offer with strong financials, fewer conditions, and flexibility on closing can often be the better outcome compared to a higher number with uncertainty attached to it.
Then there’s market context.
If you’re selling into strength but buying into strength as well, the “win” on your sale doesn’t necessarily translate to a better overall outcome. On the flip side, in softer conditions, you might not maximize on the sale price, but you gain significantly more
leverage on the buy side.
This is where most people get it wrong. They isolate the sale instead of looking at the
full picture.
A good sale is not just about the number you achieve.
It’s about how that sale positions you for what comes next.
Chris Allard mortgage team :
Some of the top rates that we are seeing today are:
Fixed
3-Year Fixed: 3.84% (less than 20% down payment)
4-Year Fixed: 3.89% (less than 20% down payment)
5-Year Fixed: 3.94% (less than 20% down payment)
5-Year Fixed: 4.04% (20% down payment or more)
5-Year Fixed: 4.04% (35% down payment or more)
Variable
5-Year Variable: 3.45% (less than 20% down payment)
5-Year Variable: 3.70% (20% down payment or more)
5-Year Variable: 3.70% (35% down payment or more)
Chris Allard, AMP
Mortgage Broker -Top 75 in Canada
Agent #M11001895
Dir: 613-324-2389 ext 1
Fax: 613-707-2752
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Engel & Völkers Ottawa Central
